Cavco Industries (CVCO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVCO - Cavco Industries Inc.
$534.25
-13.19 (-2.41%)
▼
5d:
+2.35%
30d:
-1.65%
90d:
-7.74%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CVCO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CVCO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$682.11
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$423.54
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVCO is currently trading at $534.25, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $522.86 to $563.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.4) is in line with its historical norms (22.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVCO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $547.85. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CVCO scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $665.00 (+24.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVCO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $547.85. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CVCO scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $665.00 (+24.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$522.86 -
$563.46
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
33th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 33th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.5% below Wall St target ($665.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 74/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$522.86 -
$563.46
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$29.67
(5.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$505.04
Resistance Level
$547.85
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.37
Wall Street Target
$665.00
(+24.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.4%
Profit Margin
7.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.4 vs 22.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$529.44
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$524.68
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$519.95
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→22)
$535.28
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.4, Growth: 4.8%)
$614.54
(+15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.8%)
$571.12
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 4.8%)
$485.45
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $22.99
Bull Case
$654.83
(+23%)
Analyst growth 8.7%, PE expands to 26.2
Base Case
$595.30
(+11%)
Market implied 8.7%, PE stable at 23.8
Bear Case
$372.26
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.4 to 22.0
Stabilization Target:
$550.00
(+2.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 26, 2026 1:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CVCO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CVCO price and gamma walls.