MTN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTN - Vail Resorts, Inc.
$151.99
-0.82 (-0.54%)
âŧ
5d:
+3.68%
30d:
+4.3%
90d:
+19.1%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MTN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 8.6% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MTN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 8.6% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$233.09
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$144.73
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTN is currently trading at $151.99, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $145.73 to $152.76. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 24.5) compared to its historical average (19.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $154.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $154.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$145.73 -
$152.76
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MTN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($147.23)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 8.6% growth with -7.0% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$145.73 -
$152.76
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$8.40
(5.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$140.07
Resistance Level
$154.58
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.51
Wall Street Target
$147.23
(-3.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.8%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.6% premium
PE vs Historical
24.5 vs 19.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$165.95
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$180.22
(+18%)
3-Year Target
$195.72
(+28%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25â19)
PE COMPRESSION
$153.31
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.5, Growth: 43.8%)
$454.24
(+197%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 43.8%)
$371.93
(+143%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 43.8%)
$316.14
(+107%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.55
Bull Case
$226.41
(+48%)
Analyst growth 37.0%, PE expands to 36.3
Base Case
$205.82
(+35%)
Market implied 37.0%, PE stable at 33.0
Bear Case
$102.15
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 11:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Angela A Korch
BUY
190 shares
2026-03-16
Robert A Katz
BUY
37500 shares
2026-03-16
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Advanced MTN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MTN price and gamma walls.
