Vail Resorts (MTN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTN - Vail Resorts, Inc.
$146.26
-1.97 (-1.33%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.15%
30d:
+6.12%
90d:
-1.36%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Dec 09, 2026
Get Alerted When MTN Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MTN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MTN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$156.86
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$97.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTN is currently trading at $146.26, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $138.33 to $148.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 22.8) compared to its historical average (19.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $144.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (15th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $144.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (15th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$138.33 -
$148.64
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
15th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MTN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 15th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($148.36)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.7% growth with 2.5% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$138.33 -
$148.64
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$9.54
(6.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$144.61
Resistance Level
$154.87
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.77
Wall Street Target
$148.36
(+0.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.8%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.7% premium
PE vs Historical
22.8 vs 19.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$155.20
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$162.49
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$170.13
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23â20)
PE COMPRESSION
$148.69
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.8, Growth: 3.8%)
$165.57
(+12%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 3.8%)
$144.42
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 3.8%)
$122.75
(-17%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.09
Bull Case
$257.40
(+74%)
Analyst growth 59.2%, PE expands to 39.5
Base Case
$234.00
(+58%)
Market implied 59.2%, PE stable at 35.9
Bear Case
$99.97
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 2:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:18 PM
đĨ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Resorts & Casinos Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Resorts & Casinos by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
WYNN
Wynn Resorts Limited |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$127 | 59 HOLD |
|
PENN
Penn National Gaming Inc |
BUY
20 analysts |
$24 | 69 BUY |
|
LVS
Las Vegas Sands Corp |
BUY
21 analysts |
$57 | 58 HOLD |
|
RRR
Red Rock Resorts Inc |
STRONG BUY
18 analysts |
$72 | 47 HOLD |
|
MGM
MGM Resorts International |
HOLD
23 analysts |
$46 | 62 BUY |
Advanced MTN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MTN price and gamma walls.
