OBT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OBT - Orange County Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$38.10
0.15 (0.40%)
▲
5d:
+0.29%
30d:
+0.87%
90d:
+11.66%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: OBT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: OBT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.22
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.94
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OBT is currently trading at $38.10, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.72 to $38.80. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.86, while resistance sits at $39.51.
Market Sentiment: OBT scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.00 (+12.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.86, while resistance sits at $39.51.
Market Sentiment: OBT scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.00 (+12.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$37.72 -
$38.80
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (64/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 64/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.72 -
$38.80
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.86
Resistance Level
$39.51
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.09
Wall Street Target
$43.00
(+12.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Profit Margin
38.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 9.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.36
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$40.66
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$42.00
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.28
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 9.6%)
$99.69
(+162%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 9.6%)
$50.13
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 9.6%)
$42.61
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.57
Bull Case
$44.14
(+16%)
Analyst growth 5.7%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$40.13
(+5%)
Market implied 5.7%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$25.81
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 29, 2026 3:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OBT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Michael J Gilfeather
BUY
200 shares
2026-03-19
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