Orange County Bancorp (OBT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OBT - Orange County Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$38.45
0.03 (0.08%)
▲
5d:
+2.37%
30d:
+2.04%
90d:
-0.31%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OBT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OBT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.42
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OBT is currently trading at $38.45, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.91 to $37.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.2) compared to its historical average (9.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBT is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: OBT scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+12.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBT is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: OBT scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+12.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$36.91 -
$37.92
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.91 -
$37.92
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.05
Resistance Level
$38.92
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.25
Wall Street Target
$43.33
(+12.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Profit Margin
38.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.2% premium
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.68
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$40.95
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$42.26
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.33
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.7%)
$95.64
(+149%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 8.7%)
$49.38
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 8.7%)
$41.97
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.56
Bull Case
$44.52
(+16%)
Analyst growth 5.3%, PE expands to 11.9
Base Case
$40.47
(+5%)
Market implied 5.3%, PE stable at 10.8
Bear Case
$26.13
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 28, 2026 7:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OBT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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