NFLX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFLX - NetFlix Inc
$71.40
-2.38 (-3.23%)
▼
5d:
-1.95%
30d:
-17.0%
90d:
-23.2%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
15d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NFLX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NFLX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$120.92
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$75.08
4.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFLX is currently trading at $71.40, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $74.62 to $85.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.6) compared to its historical average (24.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 86.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.15 (+59.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.15 (+59.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$74.62 -
$85.40
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 59.9% below Wall St target ($114.15)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$74.62 -
$85.40
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$81.00
Resistance Level
$88.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.65
Wall Street Target
$114.15
(+59.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.4%
Profit Margin
28.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.7 vs 24.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$65.26
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$59.65
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$54.52
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→24)
$71.33
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.6%)
$100.94
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.6, Growth: 6.6%)
$86.43
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.9, Growth: 6.6%)
$73.47
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.10
Bull Case
$99.11
(+39%)
Analyst growth 23.5%, PE expands to 25.9
Base Case
$90.10
(+26%)
Market implied 23.5%, PE stable at 23.5
Bear Case
$49.61
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.6 to 24.4
Stabilization Target:
$93.42
(+30.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 30, 2026 6:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFLX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Spencer Adam Neumann
SELL
28630 shares
2026-04-02
Reed Hastings
SELL
420550 shares
2026-04-01
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-20
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