NetFlix (NFLX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFLX - NetFlix Inc
$61.99
-0.53 (-0.85%)
▼
5d:
-4.69%
30d:
-11.82%
90d:
-15.28%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 19, 2026 at $69.59 · last confirmed Oct 26, 2026
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NFLX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NFLX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.81
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.32
6.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFLX is currently trading at $61.99, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $66.08 to $71.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.5) compared to its historical average (22.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 47.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NFLX scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $84.76 (+36.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NFLX scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $84.76 (+36.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$66.08 -
$71.87
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NFLX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (18/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.7% below Wall St target ($84.76)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$66.08 -
$71.87
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$61.51
Resistance Level
$73.07
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.46
Wall Street Target
$84.76
(+36.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
47.5%
Profit Margin
29.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.5 vs 22.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.79
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$50.21
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$45.19
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→23)
$62.33
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.1%)
$86.86
(+40%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.5, Growth: 5.1%)
$71.98
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.0, Growth: 5.1%)
$61.18
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.46
Bull Case
$74.87
(+21%)
Analyst growth 8.9%, PE expands to 19.9
Base Case
$68.06
(+10%)
Market implied 8.9%, PE stable at 18.1
Bear Case
$42.51
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.5 to 22.7
Stabilization Target:
$85.50
(+37.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 28, 2026 7:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:17 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFLX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NFLX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NFLX price and gamma walls.
