ADBE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADBE - Adobe Inc.
$212.66
7.63 (3.72%)
▲
5d:
+8.18%
30d:
-22.4%
90d:
-12.52%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 10, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADBE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADBE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$430.93
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$267.57
20.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADBE is currently trading at $212.66, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $200.08 to $251.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.4) compared to its historical average (10.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADBE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $210.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADBE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $279.87 (+36.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADBE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $210.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADBE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $279.87 (+36.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$200.08 -
$251.23
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 36.5% below Wall St target ($279.87)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$200.08 -
$251.23
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$190.12
Resistance Level
$210.80
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.44
Wall Street Target
$279.87
(+36.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.9%
Profit Margin
28.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 10.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$184.52
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$166.07
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$149.46
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→11)
$210.80
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.7%)
$859.43
(+319%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 12.7%)
$293.76
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 12.7%)
$249.70
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.48
Bull Case
$357.75
(+75%)
Analyst growth 57.5%, PE expands to 13.0
Base Case
$325.22
(+59%)
Market implied 57.5%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$140.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.4 to 10.5
Stabilization Target:
$289.16
(+41.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+41.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 01, 2026 11:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADBE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Daniel Durn
SELL
1336 shares
2026-04-20
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADBE price and gamma walls.
