ADSK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADSK - Autodesk Inc
$234.71
0.51 (0.22%)
▲
5d:
+3.9%
30d:
+13.12%
90d:
-3.95%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
23d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADSK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADSK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$388.12
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$240.99
2.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADSK is currently trading at $234.71, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $198.88 to $226.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.1) is in line with its historical norms (21.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 231.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $202.15, while resistance sits at $249.14.
Market Sentiment: ADSK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $313.89 (+33.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $202.15, while resistance sits at $249.14.
Market Sentiment: ADSK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $313.89 (+33.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$198.88 -
$226.92
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.7% below Wall St target ($313.89)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$198.88 -
$226.92
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$202.15
Resistance Level
$249.14
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.14
Wall Street Target
$313.89
(+33.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
231.4%
Profit Margin
19.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.1 vs 21.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$228.84
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$223.12
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$217.54
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→22)
$235.47
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 13.8%)
$356.17
(+52%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 13.8%)
$346.04
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 13.8%)
$294.13
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.84
Bull Case
$438.93
(+87%)
Analyst growth 70.4%, PE expands to 37.7
Base Case
$399.02
(+70%)
Market implied 70.4%, PE stable at 34.2
Bear Case
$159.26
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.1 to 21.8
Stabilization Target:
$254.05
(+8.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 6:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADSK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
4
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-27
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADSK price and gamma walls.
