ADM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADM - Archer Daniels Midland Company
$81.54
2.44 (3.08%)
▲
5d:
+1.54%
30d:
+1.15%
90d:
+2.21%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 24, 2026 at $78.16 · last confirmed Aug 25, 2026
Strength: 5.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$104.24
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$64.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADM is currently trading at $81.54, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $78.35 to $83.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.3) is in line with its historical norms (14.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 315.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $83.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADM scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $83.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADM scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$78.35 -
$83.89
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (64/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($78.70)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 64/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$78.35 -
$83.89
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$75.86
Resistance Level
$83.84
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.33
Wall Street Target
$78.70
(-3.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
315.6%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 14.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$80.81
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$80.08
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$79.36
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$81.41
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 5.0%)
$132.30
(+62%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: 5.0%)
$94.46
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 5.0%)
$80.29
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.61
Bull Case
$137.15
(+68%)
Analyst growth 57.6%, PE expands to 24.1
Base Case
$124.68
(+53%)
Market implied 57.6%, PE stable at 21.9
Bear Case
$53.79
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.3 to 14.7
Stabilization Target:
$83.65
(+2.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 29, 2026 9:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:10 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-20
Ian R Pinner
SELL
34106 shares
2026-03-13
Gregory A Morris
SELL
50000 shares
2026-03-10
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