ADM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADM - Archer Daniels Midland Company
$76.30
0.01 (0.01%)
▲
5d:
-3.75%
30d:
-1.06%
90d:
+12.22%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$115.80
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$71.90
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADM is currently trading at $76.30, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $77.21 to $81.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.4) is in line with its historical norms (14.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 0.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $74.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $74.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$77.21 -
$81.71
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($74.60)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$77.21 -
$81.71
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$74.28
Resistance Level
$82.55
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.40
Wall Street Target
$74.60
(-2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.9%
Profit Margin
1.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.4 vs 14.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.60
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$74.92
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$74.25
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$76.31
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.3%)
$163.28
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: 12.3%)
$107.95
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 12.3%)
$91.76
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.24
Bull Case
$165.22
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 36.9
Base Case
$150.20
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 33.5
Bear Case
$51.07
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.4 to 14.8
Stabilization Target:
$78.41
(+2.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-20
Ian R Pinner
SELL
34106 shares
2026-03-13
Gregory A Morris
SELL
50000 shares
2026-03-10
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