Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$94.70
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$58.80
0.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.
Valuation Analysis: TSN is currently trading at $58.48, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $56.86 to $59.50. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.1) is in line with its historical norms (14.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 204.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $59.85. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.75 (+17.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$56.86 -
$59.50
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TSN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
Tyson Foods is a protein-focused food producer, selling raw chicken, beef, pork, and prepared foods. Chicken and beef are its two largest segments, each composing about one third of US sales. Prepared foods constituted 18% of fiscal 2024 sales and include brands like Tyson, Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, Ball Park, and Sara Lee. However, most of these are in product categories rife with competition where Tyson does not have a massive market share lead. Tyson sells some products overseas, but the international segment accounts for just 4% of total revenue. The company is an active acquirer, with more recent years' purchases focused on international and food-service markets.
