What is the fair value of IBM stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for IBM to be between $222.15 and $238.51. The current price is $230.78.

What is the analyst price target for IBM?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for IBM is $240.56. This implies a potential upside of 4.2% from current levels.

IBM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

IBM - International Business Machines Corporation

COMPUTER & OFFICE EQUIPMENT

$230.78

3.76 (1.66%) ▲

5d: +4.29%

30d: -7.35%

90d: +9.27%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 21, 2026 6d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 8, 2026 at $226.61 · last confirmed Oct 12, 2026

Strength: 7.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: IBM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 6.8%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$335.25

Based on 5.4% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$208.16

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.6x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: IBM is currently trading at $230.78, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $222.15 to $238.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.6) compared to its historical average (19.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, IBM is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $234.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $222.15 - $238.51

Company Quality Score 47/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 67.6%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($240.56)
WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $222.15 - $238.51

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $217.80

Resistance Level $234.27

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 13, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 17.55

Wall Street Target $240.56 (+4.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 1.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -1.8%

Profit Margin 15.5%

Valuation Discount vs History -3.7% cheaper

PE vs Historical 17.6 vs 19.6 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -3.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $222.24 (-4%)

2-Year Target $214.02 (-7%)

3-Year Target $206.10 (-11%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 18→20) $230.22 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.8%) $318.36 (+38%)

Base: (SPY PE: 17.5, Growth: 6.8%) $281.28 (+22%)

Bear: (PE: 14.9, Growth: 6.8%) $239.08 (+4%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 20.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.26

Bull Case $291.69 (+26%)

Analyst growth 16.8%, PE expands to 22.2

Base Case $265.17 (+15%)

Market implied 16.8%, PE stable at 20.2

Bear Case $154.37 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.5 to 19.6

Stabilization Target: $257.79 (+11.7%)

PE Expansion Potential: +11.7%

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Last updated: October 14, 2026 3:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:54 AM

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