SF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SF - Stifel Financial Corp.
$71.85
2.08 (2.98%)
▲
5d:
-1.41%
30d:
+3.63%
90d:
-2.8%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$112.55
Based on 7.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SF is currently trading at $71.85, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.68 to $73.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (11.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 469.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $72.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $86.75 (+20.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $72.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $86.75 (+20.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$69.68 -
$73.03
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.7% below Wall St target ($86.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$69.68 -
$73.03
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$67.96
Resistance Level
$72.43
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.25
Wall Street Target
$86.75
(+20.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
469.2%
Profit Margin
15.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 11.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$69.77
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$67.74
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$65.78
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$71.87
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.0%)
$208.71
(+191%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 11.0%)
$98.23
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 11.0%)
$83.49
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.14
Bull Case
$104.66
(+46%)
Analyst growth 36.4%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$95.14
(+32%)
Market implied 36.4%, PE stable at 13.6
Bear Case
$47.44
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.3 to 11.2
Stabilization Target:
$78.50
(+9.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 02, 2026 12:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:49 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is SF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Rubulotta
SELL
600 shares
2026-02-02
James M Zemlyak
SELL
13 shares
2026-01-29
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