HLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLI - Houlihan Lokey, Inc.
$137.11
0.25 (0.18%)
▲
5d:
+3.07%
30d:
+7.47%
90d:
-1.54%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HLI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HLI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$218.10
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$135.42
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLI is currently trading at $137.11, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $125.36 to $134.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.1) compared to its historical average (18.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $138.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HLI scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $153.50 (+12.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $138.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HLI scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $153.50 (+12.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$125.36 -
$134.95
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($153.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$125.36 -
$134.95
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$127.20
Resistance Level
$138.90
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 4, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.08
Wall Street Target
$153.50
(+12.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.0%
Profit Margin
16.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.1 vs 18.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$131.35
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$125.83
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$120.55
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$137.17
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 9.9%)
$228.97
(+67%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 9.9%)
$182.03
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 9.9%)
$154.73
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.95
Bull Case
$215.70
(+57%)
Analyst growth 43.3%, PE expands to 25.3
Base Case
$196.09
(+43%)
Market implied 43.3%, PE stable at 23.0
Bear Case
$93.06
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.1 to 18.3
Stabilization Target:
$156.01
(+13.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 05, 2026 4:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:27 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher M Crain
SELL
500 shares
2026-04-01
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