HLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLI - Houlihan Lokey, Inc.
$125.49
-2.85 (-2.22%)
▼
5d:
-10.51%
30d:
-9.04%
90d:
-18.91%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HLI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HLI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$224.05
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$139.12
9.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLI is currently trading at $125.49, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $134.75 to $141.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.7) compared to its historical average (18.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $112.83, while resistance sits at $147.00.
Market Sentiment: HLI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $153.00 (+21.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $112.83, while resistance sits at $147.00.
Market Sentiment: HLI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $153.00 (+21.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$134.75 -
$141.98
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.9% below Wall St target ($153.00)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-10.5%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$134.75 -
$141.98
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$112.83
Resistance Level
$147.01
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.72
Wall Street Target
$153.00
(+21.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.6%
Profit Margin
16.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.7 vs 18.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$115.70
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$106.68
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$98.36
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→19)
$125.62
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 9.9%)
$234.63
(+87%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.7, Growth: 9.9%)
$166.61
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: 9.9%)
$141.62
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.74
Bull Case
$209.68
(+67%)
Analyst growth 48.5%, PE expands to 24.6
Base Case
$190.61
(+52%)
Market implied 48.5%, PE stable at 22.4
Bear Case
$87.27
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.7 to 18.8
Stabilization Target:
$160.27
(+27.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 1:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher M Crain
SELL
500 shares
2026-04-01
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-13
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