TTD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TTD - The Trade Desk, Inc.

SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.
$14.56
1.07 (7.93%) ▲
5d: -17.6%
30d: -24.83%
90d: -28.94%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Protect Your TTD Gains
Analysis Updated: Aug 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026 0d
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $13.80 · last confirmed Aug 13, 2026

Strength: 9.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TTD trades at premium valuation expecting 7.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.91
Based on -5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.53
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TTD is currently trading at $14.56, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.82 to $19.80. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.6) compared to its historical average (11.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.3% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TTD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $12.83, while resistance sits at $19.55. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.9% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range $15.82 - $19.80
Company Quality Score 54/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 80.5%

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All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.9%)
  • BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($13.62)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.3% growth with 3.0% revenue growth
  • NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (58/100) — watch for confirmation
  • CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-17.6%) - monitor closely

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $15.82 - $19.80
Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $12.83
Resistance Level $19.55
Current Trend Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of Aug 13, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 14.63
Wall Street Target $13.62 (-6.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -23.6%
Profit Margin 13.6%
Valuation Premium vs History +7.3% premium
PE vs Historical 14.6 vs 11.8 STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +7.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $15.62 (+7%)
2-Year Target $16.76 (+15%)
3-Year Target $17.99 (+24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 15→12) PE COMPRESSION $14.51 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: -14.3%) $14.68 (+1%)
Base: (SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: -14.3%) $10.61 (-27%)
Bear: (PE: 11.8, Growth: -14.3%) $8.56 (-41%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.84
Bull Case $17.58 (+21%)
Analyst growth 18.5%, PE expands to 17.7
Base Case $15.98 (+10%)
Market implied 18.5%, PE stable at 16.1
Bear Case $9.17 (-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: August 14, 2026 9:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:00 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-30
Byron Donalds SELL 2026-03-20
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. BUY 2026-03-13

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Advanced TTD Option Strategies

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