Is TTD stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TTD is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: TTD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of TTD stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TTD to be between $12.09 and $14.30. The current price is $11.94.

What is the analyst price target for TTD?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TTD is $13.57. This implies a potential upside of 13.6% from current levels.

The Trade Desk (TTD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TTD - The Trade Desk, Inc.

SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.

$11.94

-0.14 (-1.16%) ▼

5d: -0.33%

30d: -16.74%

90d: -36.96%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

Protect Your TTD Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 05, 2026 22d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 5, 2026 at $11.98 · last confirmed Oct 12, 2026

Strength: 7.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TTD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -13.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$9.40

Based on -4.7% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$5.84

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TTD is currently trading at $11.94, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.09 to $14.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.9) is in line with its historical norms (12.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TTD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: TTD scores 88/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.57 (+13.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $12.09 - $14.30

Company Quality Score 67/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 88.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (88/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($13.57)
CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 27% over 20 days — wait for relative strength

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $12.09 - $14.30

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $11.62

Resistance Level $12.55

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 12, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 11.92

Wall Street Target $13.57 (+13.6%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 3.0%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -23.6%

Profit Margin 13.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.5% cheaper

PE vs Historical 11.9 vs 12.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $11.88 (-1%)

2-Year Target $11.82 (-1%)

3-Year Target $11.76 (-2%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 12→12) $11.94 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: -13.5%) $14.51 (+22%)

Base: (SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: -13.5%) $8.70 (-27%)

Bear: (PE: 10.1, Growth: -13.5%) $7.40 (-38%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 14.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.83

Bull Case $16.04 (+34%)

Analyst growth 20.7%, PE expands to 16.0

Base Case $14.58 (+22%)

Market implied 20.7%, PE stable at 14.6

Bear Case $8.21 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.9 to 12.1

Stabilization Target: $12.12 (+1.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +1.5%

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Last updated: October 13, 2026 9:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:39 AM

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