Is CME stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, CME is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CME shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of CME stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for CME to be between $266.22 and $278.06. The current price is $284.69.

What is the analyst price target for CME?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for CME is $292.00. This implies a potential upside of 5.0% from current levels.

CME Group (CME) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

CME - CME Group Inc.

SECURITY & COMMODITY BROKERS, DEALERS, EXCHANGES & SERVICES

$284.69

6.66 (2.40%) ▲

5d: +5.34%

30d: +3.49%

90d: +15.6%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your CME Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 21, 2026 6d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 12, 2026 at $278.70 · last confirmed Oct 12, 2026

Strength: 5.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CME shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 5.7%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$363.96

Based on 4.9% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$225.99

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: CME is currently trading at $284.69, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $266.22 to $278.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.4) is in line with its historical norms (22.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, CME is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $283.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: CME scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $266.22 - $278.06

Company Quality Score 44/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 23.8%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($292.00)
WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $266.22 - $278.06

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $260.06

Resistance Level $283.52

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 13, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 21.39

Wall Street Target $292.00 (+5.0%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 0.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 2.5%

Profit Margin 63.4%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.1% cheaper

PE vs Historical 21.4 vs 22.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $274.97 (-1%)

2-Year Target $271.95 (-2%)

3-Year Target $268.96 (-3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 21→22) $277.86 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 21.4, Growth: 5.7%) $328.02 (+18%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.7%) $304.53 (+10%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 5.7%) $258.85 (-7%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 23.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.79

Bull Case $336.19 (+21%)

Analyst growth 10.2%, PE expands to 25.9

Base Case $305.63 (+10%)

Market implied 10.2%, PE stable at 23.5

Bear Case $188.52 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.0

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.4 to 22.1

Stabilization Target: $287.24 (+3.3%)

PE Expansion Potential: +3.3%

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Last updated: October 14, 2026 11:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:55 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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