CME Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CME - CME Group Inc.
$245.10
4.83 (2.01%)
▲
5d:
+4.4%
30d:
-7.09%
90d:
-17.0%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
7d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CME appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.8% annual earnings decline despite 21% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CME appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.8% annual earnings decline despite 21% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$368.42
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$228.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CME is currently trading at $245.10, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $230.24 to $258.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.0) compared to its historical average (22.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CME is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $218.31, while resistance sits at $269.53.
Market Sentiment: CME has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $285.47 (+16.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CME is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $218.31, while resistance sits at $269.53.
Market Sentiment: CME has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $285.47 (+16.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$230.24 -
$258.94
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($285.47)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$230.24 -
$258.94
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$218.31
Resistance Level
$269.53
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 29, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.00
Wall Street Target
$285.47
(+16.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.3%
Profit Margin
63.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.0 vs 22.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$230.88
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$217.49
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$204.88
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→23)
$244.79
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.4%)
$328.58
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.0, Growth: 5.4%)
$286.62
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.1, Growth: 5.4%)
$243.63
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.73
Bull Case
$290.68
(+19%)
Analyst growth 10.0%, PE expands to 22.5
Base Case
$264.25
(+8%)
Market implied 10.0%, PE stable at 20.5
Bear Case
$163.38
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.0 to 22.7
Stabilization Target:
$292.85
(+19.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 1:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CME showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jonathan L Marcus
SELL
3291 shares
2026-03-17
Bryan T Durkin
SELL
4200 shares
2026-02-23
Martin J Gepsman
SELL
300 shares
2026-02-20
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