Is EXPE stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, EXPE is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EXPE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of EXPE stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for EXPE to be between $262.88 and $283.73. The current price is $288.95.

What is the analyst price target for EXPE?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for EXPE is $336.14. This implies a potential upside of 16.3% from current levels.

Expedia Group (EXPE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

EXPE - Expedia Group, Inc. Common Stock

TRANSPORTATION SERVICES

$288.95

-2.92 (-1.00%) ▼

5d: +5.37%

30d: +1.55%

90d: +9.0%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your EXPE Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 04, 2026 16d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 16, 2026 at $294.01 · last confirmed Oct 16, 2026

Strength: 6.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EXPE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 16.7%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$475.76

Based on 10.4% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$295.41

2.2% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.9x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: EXPE is currently trading at $288.95, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $262.88 to $283.73. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.8) is in line with its historical norms (11.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 188.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $253.16, while resistance sits at $298.63.

Market Sentiment: EXPE scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $336.14 (+16.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $262.88 - $283.73

Company Quality Score 45/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 26.2%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($336.14)
WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $262.88 - $283.73

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $253.16

Resistance Level $298.63

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 16, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 11.78

Wall Street Target $336.14 (+16.3%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 14.0%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 188.7%

Profit Margin 13.0%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.4% cheaper

PE vs Historical 11.8 vs 11.9 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $287.79 (0%)

2-Year Target $286.64 (-1%)

3-Year Target $285.50 (-1%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 12→12) $288.47 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.7%) $774.77 (+168%)

Base: (SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 16.7%) $459.45 (+59%)

Bear: (PE: 10.0, Growth: 16.7%) $390.53 (+35%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 18.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.01

Bull Case $492.00 (+70%)

Analyst growth 53.2%, PE expands to 20.1

Base Case $447.28 (+55%)

Market implied 53.2%, PE stable at 18.2

Bear Case $198.47 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.8 to 11.9

Stabilization Target: $291.96 (+1.0%)

PE Expansion Potential: +1.0%

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Last updated: October 18, 2026 1:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:32 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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