Is AMD stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AMD is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: AMD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of AMD stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AMD to be between $467.13 and $525.45. The current price is $471.46.

What is the analyst price target for AMD?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AMD is $612.84. This implies a potential upside of 30.5% from current levels.

AMD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AMD - Advanced Micro Devices

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

$471.46

2.00 (0.43%) ▲

5d: -8.35%

30d: -12.64%

90d: +4.86%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 04, 2026 0d

NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)

See why AMD plays a critical role in the upcoming CPU supercycle alongside GPUs. Read Deep Dive →

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 12, 2026 at $487.20 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026

Strength: 6.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$752.65

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$467.34

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AMD is currently trading at $471.46, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $467.13 to $525.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.4) is in line with its historical norms (31.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 159.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AMD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $460.27. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: AMD scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $612.84 (+30.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $467.13 - $525.45

Company Quality Score 64/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 90.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 30.5% below Wall St target ($612.84)
BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 60/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.3% 5-day decline

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $467.13 - $525.45

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $460.27

Resistance Level $517.35

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 30.37

Wall Street Target $612.84 (+30.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 50.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 159.5%

Profit Margin 15.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.6% cheaper

PE vs Historical 30.4 vs 31.0 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $466.64 (-1%)

2-Year Target $463.84 (-1%)

3-Year Target $461.06 (-2%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 30→31) $470.68 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 30.4, Growth: 104.5%) $1584.41 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 104.5%) $1047.20 (+123%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 104.5%) $890.12 (+90%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (65x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 65.36 | Forward EPS (Implied): $7.18

Bull Case $566.87 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 68.6

Base Case $469.45 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 65.4

Bear Case $359.13 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 58.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 30.4 to 31.0

Stabilization Target: $479.26 (+2.1%)

PE Expansion Potential: +2.1%

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Last updated: August 21, 2026 3:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:34 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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