Is AMD stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AMD is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: AMD is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

What is the fair value of AMD stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AMD to be between $539.95 and $632.62. The current price is $534.74.

What is the analyst price target for AMD?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AMD is $627.65. This implies a potential upside of 16.7% from current levels.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AMD - Advanced Micro Devices

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

$534.74

-3.31 (-0.62%) ▼

5d: -11.69%

30d: -13.12%

90d: -3.18%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 20, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 03, 2026 13d

NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)

See why AMD plays a critical role in the upcoming CPU supercycle alongside GPUs. Read Deep Dive →

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 8, 2026 at $620.68 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026

Strength: 8.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMD is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$767.03

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$476.27

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AMD is currently trading at $534.74, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $539.95 to $632.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 34.1) is in line with its historical norms (31.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AMD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $524.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $627.65 (+16.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $539.95 - $632.62

Company Quality Score 59/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 78.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($627.65)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (47/100) — watch for confirmation
CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-11.7%) - monitor closely

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $539.95 - $632.62

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $524.60

Resistance Level $648.48

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 20, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 34.15

Wall Street Target $627.65 (+16.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 50.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 159.5%

Profit Margin 15.6%

Valuation Premium vs History +2.5% premium

PE vs Historical 34.2 vs 31.8 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +2.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $551.50 (+3%)

2-Year Target $565.29 (+5%)

3-Year Target $579.42 (+8%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 34→32) PE COMPRESSION $539.54 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 34.2, Growth: 107.7%) $1815.92 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 107.7%) $1056.04 (+96%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 107.7%) $897.63 (+67%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (34x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 39.53 | Forward EPS (Implied): $13.61

Bull Case $649.70 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 41.5

Base Case $538.05 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 39.5

Bear Case $411.61 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 35.6

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 20, 2026 3:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:54 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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