Eli Lilly & (LLY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LLY - Eli Lilly & Co.
$1417.54
43.84 (3.19%)
▲
5d:
+11.31%
30d:
+23.28%
90d:
+26.41%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: LLY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: LLY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2310.74
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1434.79
1.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LLY is currently trading at $1417.54, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1150.36 to $1289.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 29.9) compared to its historical average (26.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1449.68. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: LLY scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1449.68. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: LLY scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$1150.36 -
$1289.02
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.4%
Protect Your Profits
LLY is technically overbought (RSI 78). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+10.0% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.2%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($1336.61)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1150.36 -
$1289.02
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1239.10
Resistance Level
$1449.68
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.87
Wall Street Target
$1336.61
(-5.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
47.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.2%
Profit Margin
33.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.8% premium
PE vs Historical
29.9 vs 26.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1485.58
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$1556.89
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$1631.62
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→26)
PE COMPRESSION
$1420.44
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.9, Growth: 43.2%)
$4158.43
(+193%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 43.2%)
$2765.27
(+95%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 43.2%)
$2350.48
(+66%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $31.76
Bull Case
$2258.24
(+59%)
Analyst growth 49.4%, PE expands to 47.6
Base Case
$2052.94
(+45%)
Market implied 49.4%, PE stable at 43.3
Bear Case
$934.12
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: November 01, 2026 4:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LLY price and gamma walls.
