AMGN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMGN - Amgen Inc
$385.16
-2.48 (-0.64%)
▼
5d:
+2.43%
30d:
+6.6%
90d:
+11.24%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
TODAY
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMGN is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AMGN is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$442.90
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$275.01
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMGN is currently trading at $385.16, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $354.85 to $378.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.4) is in line with its historical norms (15.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMGN is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $359.21, while resistance sits at $398.00.
Market Sentiment: AMGN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMGN is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $359.21, while resistance sits at $398.00.
Market Sentiment: AMGN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$354.85 -
$378.10
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AMGN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($357.03)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$354.85 -
$378.10
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$359.21
Resistance Level
$398.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.43
Wall Street Target
$357.03
(-7.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Profit Margin
21.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 15.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$395.17
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$405.45
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$415.99
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$384.79
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 4.9%)
$560.28
(+46%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.4, Growth: 4.9%)
$444.14
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.0, Growth: 4.9%)
$377.52
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.38
Bull Case
$695.02
(+80%)
Analyst growth 63.0%, PE expands to 29.7
Base Case
$631.83
(+64%)
Market implied 63.0%, PE stable at 27.0
Bear Case
$263.60
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMGN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Maria Elvira Salazar
BUY
2026-03-24
David Taylor
SELL
2026-02-26
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMGN price and gamma walls.
