HCM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCM - HUTCHMED (China) Limited American Depositary Shares
$12.63
0.07 (0.56%)
▲
5d:
+3.52%
30d:
+15.24%
90d:
+4.9%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HCM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HCM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.87
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.37
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCM is currently trading at $12.63, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.10 to $12.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 51.8) compared to its historical average (32.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 17.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HCM scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.99 (+66.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HCM scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.99 (+66.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$11.10 -
$12.36
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
31.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (23/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 66.2% below Wall St target ($20.99)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 17.4% growth with 0.2% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.10 -
$12.36
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.00
Resistance Level
$12.90
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
51.80
Wall Street Target
$20.99
(+66.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-96.5%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+17.4% premium
PE vs Historical
51.8 vs 32.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+17.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.83
(+17%)
2-Year Target
$17.41
(+38%)
3-Year Target
$20.44
(+62%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 52→32)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.62
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 51.8, Growth: 54.1%)
$42.63
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 54.1%)
$16.51
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 54.1%)
$14.04
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 14.81 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.85
Bull Case
$15.25
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 15.6
Base Case
$12.63
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.8
Bear Case
$9.66
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 13.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 8:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:33 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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