HCM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCM - HUTCHMED (China) Limited American Depositary Shares
$11.12
0.11 (1.00%)
▲
5d:
-1.77%
30d:
+8.07%
90d:
-20.57%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HCM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HCM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.69
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCM is currently trading at $11.12, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.45 to $11.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.6) is in line with its historical norms (30.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HCM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.48 (+102.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HCM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.48 (+102.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$10.45 -
$11.38
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 102.1% below Wall St target ($22.48)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.7% growth with -16.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.45 -
$11.38
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.83
Resistance Level
$11.79
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.60
Wall Street Target
$22.48
(+102.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-16.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.1%
Profit Margin
83.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
30.6 vs 30.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.20
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$11.28
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$11.36
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→30)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.13
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.6, Growth: 42.5%)
$32.15
(+189%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.8, Growth: 42.5%)
$21.86
(+97%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.7, Growth: 42.5%)
$18.58
(+67%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.65
Bull Case
$6.06
(-46%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 4.6
Base Case
$5.50
(-51%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 4.2
Bear Case
$7.49
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 27, 2026 9:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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