AZN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AZN - AstraZeneca PLC
$169.64
-1.70 (-0.99%)
▼
5d:
+0.22%
30d:
-7.73%
90d:
-9.46%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AZN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AZN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$335.39
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$208.25
18.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AZN is currently trading at $169.64, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $167.61 to $186.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.5) compared to its historical average (26.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AZN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $164.06, while resistance sits at $175.03.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $213.69 (+26.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AZN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $164.06, while resistance sits at $175.03.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $213.69 (+26.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$167.61 -
$186.52
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.0% below Wall St target ($213.69)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$167.61 -
$186.52
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$164.06
Resistance Level
$175.04
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.54
Wall Street Target
$213.69
(+26.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Profit Margin
17.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.5 vs 26.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$154.20
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$140.17
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$127.41
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→26)
$169.58
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 14.3%)
$268.49
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.5, Growth: 14.3%)
$253.02
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.6, Growth: 14.3%)
$215.06
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.60
Bull Case
$247.98
(+46%)
Analyst growth 31.6%, PE expands to 28.6
Base Case
$225.43
(+33%)
Market implied 31.6%, PE stable at 26.0
Bear Case
$116.51
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.5 to 26.0
Stabilization Target:
$225.78
(+33.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AZN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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