NVDA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVDA - Nvidia Corp
$195.74
-3.26 (-1.64%)
▼
5d:
-4.35%
30d:
-8.9%
90d:
+9.55%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 25, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 26, 2026
NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)
See why NVDA plays a critical role in the upcoming CPU supercycle alongside GPUs. Read Deep Dive →
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Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NVDA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NVDA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$382.54
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$237.53
17.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVDA is currently trading at $195.74, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $203.27 to $219.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.3) is in line with its historical norms (27.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 214.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVDA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $192.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NVDA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $298.93 (+50.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVDA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $192.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NVDA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $298.93 (+50.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$203.27 -
$219.26
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NVDA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 50.2% below Wall St target ($298.93)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$203.27 -
$219.26
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$192.13
Resistance Level
$213.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 25, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.33
Wall Street Target
$298.93
(+50.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
85.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
214.5%
Profit Margin
63.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.3 vs 27.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$194.02
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$189.17
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$184.45
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→27)
$198.82
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.3, Growth: 67.3%)
$671.62
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 67.3%)
$577.59
(+190%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 67.3%)
$490.95
(+147%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.52
Bull Case
$265.19
(+33%)
Analyst growth 20.5%, PE expands to 33.8
Base Case
$241.08
(+21%)
Market implied 20.5%, PE stable at 30.7
Bear Case
$136.03
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.3 to 27.3
Stabilization Target:
$214.51
(+7.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 25, 2026 4:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVDA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-25
Daniel Meuser
SELL
2026-03-25
Colette Kress
SELL
42650 shares
2026-03-20
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