Is NVDA stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, NVDA is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: NVDA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of NVDA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for NVDA to be between $201.62 and $221.34. The current price is $208.48.

What is the analyst price target for NVDA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for NVDA is $304.73. This implies a potential upside of 46.2% from current levels.

NVDA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

NVDA - Nvidia Corp

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

$208.48

-6.24 (-2.91%) ▼

5d: -7.35%

30d: +0.79%

90d: -3.18%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your NVDA Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 26, 2026 1d

NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)

See why NVDA plays a critical role in the upcoming CPU supercycle alongside GPUs. Read Deep Dive →

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 18, 2026 at $219.53 · last confirmed Aug 24, 2026

Strength: 8.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NVDA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$382.54

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$237.53

12.2% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: NVDA is currently trading at $208.48, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $201.62 to $221.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.5) is in line with its historical norms (27.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 214.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, NVDA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $207.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: NVDA scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $304.73 (+46.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $201.62 - $221.34

Company Quality Score 54/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 50.0%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 46.2% below Wall St target ($304.73)
CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-7.3%) - monitor closely

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $201.62 - $221.34

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $207.25

Resistance Level $227.92

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 24, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 26.53

Wall Street Target $304.73 (+46.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 85.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 214.5%

Profit Margin 63.0%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.7% cheaper

PE vs Historical 26.5 vs 27.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $207.02 (-1%)

2-Year Target $205.57 (-1%)

3-Year Target $204.13 (-2%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 27→27) $208.50 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 26.5, Growth: 67.3%) $703.62 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 67.3%) $531.71 (+155%)

Bear: (PE: 17.0, Growth: 67.3%) $451.96 (+117%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 33.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.51

Bull Case $287.91 (+34%)

Analyst growth 20.7%, PE expands to 36.6

Base Case $261.74 (+22%)

Market implied 20.7%, PE stable at 33.3

Bear Case $147.46 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.5 to 27.1

Stabilization Target: $212.94 (+2.1%)

PE Expansion Potential: +2.1%

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Last updated: August 24, 2026 5:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:24 PM

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Technical Signals Check

Is NVDA showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check

Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. SELL 2026-03-25

Daniel Meuser SELL 2026-03-25

Colette Kress SELL 42650 shares 2026-03-20

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