RWT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RWT - Redwood Trust, Inc.
$4.80
0.05 (1.05%)
â˛
5d:
-0.21%
30d:
-2.04%
90d:
-9.26%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: RWT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -8.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: RWT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -8.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.24
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.12
6.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RWT is currently trading at $4.80, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.64 to $5.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.4) compared to its historical average (5.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RWT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RWT scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.91 (+23.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RWT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RWT scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.91 (+23.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$4.64 -
$5.05
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding RWT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.0% below Wall St target ($5.91)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.64 -
$5.05
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.52
Resistance Level
$4.88
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.36
Wall Street Target
$5.91
(+23.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.6%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.4 vs 5.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.37
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$3.98
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$3.63
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4â6)
$4.82
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 6.5%)
$26.70
(+456%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.4, Growth: 6.5%)
$5.80
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.7, Growth: 6.5%)
$4.93
(+3%)
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.4 to 5.8
Stabilization Target:
$6.38
(+32.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 3:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RWT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RWT price and gamma walls.
