BXMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BXMT - Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NEW)
$14.54
-0.43 (-2.87%)
▼
5d:
-12.88%
30d:
-14.27%
90d:
-23.43%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: BXMT is down 12.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: BXMT is down 12.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.82
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.10
39.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BXMT is currently trading at $14.54, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.20 to $17.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.8) compared to its historical average (10.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.75 (+42.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.75 (+42.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$16.20 -
$17.63
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 42.7% below Wall St target ($20.75)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -12.9% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.20 -
$17.63
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.11
Resistance Level
$17.03
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.81
Wall Street Target
$20.75
(+42.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Profit Margin
22.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 10.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.10
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$11.80
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$10.64
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→11)
$14.58
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 35.1%)
$95.16
(+555%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 35.1%)
$35.83
(+146%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 35.1%)
$30.46
(+110%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.55
Bull Case
$32.93
(+127%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 29.9
Base Case
$29.94
(+106%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 27.2
Bear Case
$10.18
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.8 to 10.7
Stabilization Target:
$19.93
(+37.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:14 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is BXMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Fernando Austin Pena
SELL
1666 shares
2026-03-31
Marcin Urbaszek
SELL
452 shares
2026-03-17
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