ABR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABR - Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
$5.19
0.01 (0.19%)
▲
5d:
+1.96%
30d:
+3.39%
90d:
-12.18%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ABR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ABR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.84
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.49
5.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABR is currently trading at $5.19, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.98 to $5.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.7) compared to its historical average (8.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.89, while resistance sits at $5.48.
Market Sentiment: ABR scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.88 (+13.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.89, while resistance sits at $5.48.
Market Sentiment: ABR scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.88 (+13.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$4.98 -
$5.24
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($5.88)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.5% growth with -24.8% revenue growth
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 71/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.98 -
$5.24
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.90
Resistance Level
$5.48
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.72
Wall Street Target
$5.88
(+13.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-24.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.0%
Profit Margin
11.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.5% premium
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.42
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$5.67
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$5.92
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$5.18
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 96.0%)
$36.17
(+597%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 96.0%)
$17.52
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 96.0%)
$14.89
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 11.74 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.44
Bull Case
$6.27
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$5.19
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$3.97
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 2:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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