ABR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABR - Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
$5.01
0.22 (4.59%)
▲
5d:
+0.4%
30d:
-6.53%
90d:
-36.58%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ABR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ABR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.95
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.18
18.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABR is currently trading at $5.01, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.94 to $5.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.73, while resistance sits at $5.17. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.25 (+24.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.73, while resistance sits at $5.17. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.25 (+24.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$4.94 -
$5.23
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 24.8% below Wall St target ($6.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.94 -
$5.23
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.73
Resistance Level
$5.17
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.24
Wall Street Target
$6.25
(+24.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.0%
Profit Margin
22.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.97
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$4.93
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$4.89
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$4.99
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 121.9%)
$42.54
(+749%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 121.9%)
$16.91
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 121.9%)
$14.37
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.38
Bull Case
$8.43
(+68%)
Analyst growth 60.0%, PE expands to 13.9
Base Case
$7.66
(+53%)
Market implied 60.0%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$3.26
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$5.11
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 1:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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