ARI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARI - APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC.
$6.62
0.12 (1.85%)
▲
5d:
-2.22%
30d:
-37.19%
90d:
-39.49%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.02
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.57
37.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARI is currently trading at $6.62, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.11 to $10.83. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.7) compared to its historical average (11.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.88 (+49.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.88 (+49.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$7.11 -
$10.83
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 49.2% below Wall St target ($9.88)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.11 -
$10.83
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.43
Resistance Level
$7.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.71
Wall Street Target
$9.88
(+49.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Profit Margin
47.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 11.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.04
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$5.51
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$5.02
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→12)
$6.63
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 65.1%)
$53.17
(+703%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 65.1%)
$22.34
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 65.1%)
$18.99
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.80
Bull Case
$6.79
(+3%)
Analyst growth -5.0%, PE expands to 8.9
Base Case
$6.17
(-7%)
Market implied -5.0%, PE stable at 8.1
Bear Case
$4.42
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 11.5
Stabilization Target:
$8.74
(+32.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 1:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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