ARI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARI - APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC.
$6.93
-0.01 (-0.14%)
âŧ
5d:
+1.46%
30d:
+2.51%
90d:
-36.71%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ARI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 37.2% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ARI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 37.2% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.75
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.33
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARI is currently trading at $6.93, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.04 to $8.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 30.5) compared to its historical average (11.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 37.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $7.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+15.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $7.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+15.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$6.04 -
$8.27
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($8.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 37.2% growth with 524.9% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.04 -
$8.27
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.65
Resistance Level
$7.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.53
Wall Street Target
$8.00
(+15.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
524.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.0%
Profit Margin
21.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+37.2% premium
PE vs Historical
30.5 vs 11.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+37.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.51
(+37%)
2-Year Target
$13.04
(+88%)
3-Year Target
$17.90
(+158%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31â12)
PE COMPRESSION
$6.92
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.80
Bull Case
$3.82
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 9.5
Base Case
$3.47
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 8.7
Bear Case
$4.72
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 2:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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