SFM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFM - Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.
$80.20
-3.89 (-4.63%)
▼
5d:
-5.18%
30d:
-3.22%
90d:
+3.99%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SFM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SFM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$102.30
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$63.52
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFM is currently trading at $80.20, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.42 to $86.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.2) is in line with its historical norms (13.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $76.88, while resistance sits at $89.79. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: SFM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $76.88, while resistance sits at $89.79. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: SFM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$80.42 -
$86.56
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($92.43)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.8% growth with 4.1% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.42 -
$86.56
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$76.88
Resistance Level
$89.79
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.23
Wall Street Target
$92.43
(+9.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.5%
Profit Margin
5.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 13.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.60
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$87.14
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$88.71
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$84.17
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.2%)
$154.23
(+83%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 6.2%)
$100.76
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 6.2%)
$85.64
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.21
Bull Case
$108.02
(+29%)
Analyst growth 13.4%, PE expands to 18.3
Base Case
$98.20
(+17%)
Market implied 13.4%, PE stable at 16.6
Bear Case
$58.87
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 08, 2026 1:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Timmi Zalatoris
SELL
426 shares
2026-03-23
Brandon F Lombardi
SELL
297 shares
2026-03-20
Timmi Zalatoris
SELL
311 shares
2026-03-20
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