Is SFM stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, SFM is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SFM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of SFM stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for SFM to be between $76.06 and $85.89. The current price is $85.23.

What is the analyst price target for SFM?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for SFM is $94.64. This implies a potential upside of 9.9% from current levels.

SFM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

SFM - Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.

RETAIL-GROCERY STORES

$85.23

-0.90 (-1.04%) ▼

5d: +8.11%

30d: +10.92%

90d: -0.47%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your SFM Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 29, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 19, 2026 at $81.01 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026

Strength: 6.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SFM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 7.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$105.48

Based on 5.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$65.49

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.5x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: SFM is currently trading at $85.23, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.06 to $85.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.5) is in line with its historical norms (13.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.

Technical Outlook: Technically, SFM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $87.26. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 56/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $76.06 - $85.89

Company Quality Score 44/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 41.4%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (56/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($94.64)
BEARISH: Market expects 2.4% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $76.06 - $85.89

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $76.60

Resistance Level $87.26

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Aug 24, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 14.47

Wall Street Target $94.64 (+9.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 4.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 1.5%

Profit Margin 5.6%

Valuation Premium vs History +2.4% premium

PE vs Historical 14.5 vs 13.5 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +2.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $88.20 (+2%)

2-Year Target $90.31 (+5%)

3-Year Target $92.48 (+7%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 14→14) PE COMPRESSION $86.27 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 7.2%) $147.07 (+71%)

Base: (SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: 7.2%) $106.16 (+23%)

Bear: (PE: 12.3, Growth: 7.2%) $90.23 (+5%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 15.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.23

Bull Case $101.49 (+18%)

Analyst growth 13.8%, PE expands to 17.1

Base Case $92.27 (+7%)

Market implied 13.8%, PE stable at 15.5

Bear Case $55.13 (-36%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 25, 2026 12:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:33 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Timmi Zalatoris SELL 426 shares 2026-03-23

Brandon F Lombardi SELL 297 shares 2026-03-20

Timmi Zalatoris SELL 311 shares 2026-03-20

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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SFM price and gamma walls.

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