The Estee Lauder Companies (EL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EL - The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A
$109.51
1.16 (1.07%)
▲
5d:
+5.64%
30d:
+16.04%
90d:
+29.02%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$154.76
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$96.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EL is currently trading at $109.51, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $93.81 to $105.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 34.1) is in line with its historical norms (31.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $109.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EL scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $109.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EL scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$93.81 -
$105.83
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding EL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($110.05)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.1% growth with 6.3% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$93.81 -
$105.83
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$98.72
Resistance Level
$109.35
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.09
Wall Street Target
$110.05
(+1.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-45.5%
Profit Margin
1.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
34.1 vs 31.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$111.71
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$115.17
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$118.74
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→31)
PE COMPRESSION
$108.34
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.1, Growth: 31.0%)
$243.72
(+125%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 31.0%)
$142.01
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 31.0%)
$120.70
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 33.00 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.28
Bull Case
$130.83
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 34.7
Base Case
$108.35
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 33.0
Bear Case
$82.89
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 29.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 28, 2026 1:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced EL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's EL price and gamma walls.
