HLF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLF - Herbalife Ltd.
$12.42
-0.02 (-0.16%)
▼
5d:
+4.46%
30d:
-4.39%
90d:
-25.18%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLF trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLF trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.97
Based on 13.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.99
31.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLF is currently trading at $12.42, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.04 to $12.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.9) compared to its historical average (4.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HLF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.33 (+47.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HLF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.33 (+47.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$12.04 -
$12.92
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.6% below Wall St target ($18.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.04 -
$12.92
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.62
Resistance Level
$12.64
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.94
Wall Street Target
$18.33
(+47.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.9 vs 4.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.58
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$10.79
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$10.05
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$12.51
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 23.2%)
$122.22
(+884%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.9, Growth: 23.2%)
$23.22
(+87%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.3, Growth: 23.2%)
$19.74
(+59%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (5x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 5.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.27
Bull Case
$19.01
(+53%)
Analyst growth 38.9%, PE expands to 6.0
Base Case
$17.28
(+39%)
Market implied 38.9%, PE stable at 5.5
Bear Case
$8.46
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.9 to 4.9
Stabilization Target:
$15.45
(+24.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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