AMCR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AMCR - Amcor plc Ordinary Shares

MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
$46.03
-0.35 (-0.75%) â–ŧ
5d: -3.82%
30d: +2.65%
90d: +19.28%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026 0d
Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 13, 2026 at $46.48 · last confirmed Aug 14, 2026

Strength: 3.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
ℹī¸ NEUTRAL: AMCR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$57.26
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.55
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AMCR is currently trading at $46.03, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.19 to $46.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AMCR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $45.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: AMCR scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range $43.19 - $46.71
Company Quality Score 44/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 41.4%

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All Signals

  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($48.99)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.3% growth with 25.9% revenue growth
  • WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $43.19 - $46.71
Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $45.32
Resistance Level $48.00
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Aug 14, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.76
Wall Street Target $48.99 (+6.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 25.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -11.7%
Profit Margin 4.7%
Valuation Premium vs History +2.3% premium
PE vs Historical 10.8 vs 10.1 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +2.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $47.09 (+2%)
2-Year Target $48.17 (+5%)
3-Year Target $49.28 (+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 11→10) PE COMPRESSION $46.26 (+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 7.6%) $107.69 (+134%)
Base: (SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 7.6%) $57.27 (+24%)
Bear: (PE: 9.1, Growth: 7.6%) $48.68 (+6%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.37
Bull Case $92.09 (+100%)
Analyst growth 80.5%, PE expands to 21.5
Base Case $83.72 (+82%)
Market implied 80.5%, PE stable at 19.6
Bear Case $31.54 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: August 16, 2026 8:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check

Is AMCR showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Thomas H. Kean, Jr. BUY 2026-03-31
Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-10

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Advanced AMCR Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMCR price and gamma walls.

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