GPK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GPK - Graphic Packaging Holding Company
$11.96
0.33 (2.84%)
▲
5d:
+4.91%
30d:
+8.83%
90d:
+19.12%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GPK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GPK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.72
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPK is currently trading at $11.96, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.79 to $11.79. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.7) compared to its historical average (8.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.79 -
$11.79
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($12.58)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.6% growth with -0.7% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.79 -
$11.79
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.94
Resistance Level
$12.13
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.70
Wall Street Target
$12.58
(+5.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-76.5%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.6% premium
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 8.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.87
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$13.85
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$14.90
(+25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.98
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 56.8%)
$75.72
(+533%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 56.8%)
$40.37
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 56.8%)
$32.44
(+171%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.65
Bull Case
$21.56
(+80%)
Analyst growth 72.0%, PE expands to 19.3
Base Case
$19.60
(+64%)
Market implied 72.0%, PE stable at 17.5
Bear Case
$7.75
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Robbert Rietbroek
BUY
44278 shares
2026-03-04
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