GPK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GPK - Graphic Packaging Holding Company
$10.38
0.10 (0.97%)
▲
5d:
-2.17%
30d:
+0.48%
90d:
+7.34%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GPK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GPK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.77
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.65
10.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPK is currently trading at $10.38, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.33 to $10.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.9) is in line with its historical norms (8.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.68 (+12.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.68 (+12.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$10.33 -
$10.85
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($11.68)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.3% growth with 1.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.33 -
$10.85
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.15
Resistance Level
$11.61
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.94
Wall Street Target
$11.68
(+12.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-48.0%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.3% premium
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.62
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$10.86
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$11.11
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$10.32
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 38.8%)
$67.63
(+552%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 38.8%)
$27.76
(+167%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 38.8%)
$23.59
(+127%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.92
Bull Case
$14.27
(+38%)
Analyst growth 26.2%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$12.98
(+25%)
Market implied 26.2%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$6.99
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 9:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:13 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Robbert Rietbroek
BUY
44278 shares
2026-03-04
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-09
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