PKG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PKG - Packaging Corp of America
$251.09
5.25 (2.14%)
▲
5d:
-0.51%
30d:
+5.41%
90d:
+15.15%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PKG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PKG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$414.13
Based on 12.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$257.14
2.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PKG is currently trading at $251.09, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $227.65 to $246.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.8) is in line with its historical norms (18.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PKG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $222.74, while resistance sits at $258.81.
Market Sentiment: PKG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PKG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $222.74, while resistance sits at $258.81.
Market Sentiment: PKG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$227.65 -
$246.54
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($256.70)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.6% growth with 14.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$227.65 -
$246.54
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$11.28
(4.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$222.74
Resistance Level
$258.81
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.81
Wall Street Target
$256.70
(+2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.9%
Profit Margin
7.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
19.8 vs 18.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$257.62
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$264.32
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$271.19
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$250.53
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 20.9%)
$464.17
(+85%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.8, Growth: 20.9%)
$443.55
(+77%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.8, Growth: 20.9%)
$377.02
(+50%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.71
Bull Case
$449.63
(+83%)
Analyst growth 64.4%, PE expands to 35.5
Base Case
$408.76
(+66%)
Market implied 64.4%, PE stable at 32.3
Bear Case
$169.07
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 5:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:16 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is PKG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
April McClain Delaney
BUY
2026-03-20
April McClain Delaney
BUY
2026-03-17
Thomas A Hassfurther
SELL
12129 shares
2026-02-05
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Advanced PKG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PKG price and gamma walls.
