PKG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PKG - Packaging Corp of America
$225.86
-2.91 (-1.27%)
▼
5d:
-4.45%
30d:
+4.26%
90d:
+9.44%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PKG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PKG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$407.08
Based on 12.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$252.76
10.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PKG is currently trading at $225.86, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $224.11 to $237.36. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.1) is in line with its historical norms (18.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PKG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $227.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PKG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $227.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$224.11 -
$237.36
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
21th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 21th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($241.90)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$224.11 -
$237.36
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$11.86
(5.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$214.55
Resistance Level
$227.89
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.05
Wall Street Target
$241.90
(+7.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.5%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.1 vs 18.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$224.96
(0%)
2-Year Target
$224.06
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$223.16
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→18)
$226.25
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 20.7%)
$478.87
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.0, Growth: 20.7%)
$396.86
(+76%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.3, Growth: 20.7%)
$337.33
(+49%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.24
Bull Case
$382.15
(+69%)
Analyst growth 51.9%, PE expands to 30.5
Base Case
$347.41
(+54%)
Market implied 51.9%, PE stable at 27.8
Bear Case
$155.56
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.0 to 18.3
Stabilization Target:
$228.99
(+1.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 9:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:13 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is PKG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
April McClain Delaney
BUY
2026-03-20
April McClain Delaney
BUY
2026-03-17
Thomas A Hassfurther
SELL
12129 shares
2026-02-05
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Advanced PKG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PKG price and gamma walls.
