Target Price Playground
AAPL
$289.36
๐ข
AAPL IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-42.6% vs 30d avg of 46.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $255 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
52d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $290 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.32 ยท ฮ -0.48
SHORT PUT ยท $265 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.87 ยท ฮ -0.19
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $255 by Aug 21: the bear put spread returns +$1,755 (235.6%) on $745 risked, vs $-3,436 (-11.9%) for 100 shares on $28,936. Options give 19.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (52 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $255. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $255 by Aug 21
+$1,755
+235.6% on $745 risked
Max Profit
+$1,755
If the stock โค $265 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$745
Net debit
Break-even
$282.55
-2.35% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
25%
IV-implied, 52d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-29.07 / -1.91 / 16.3
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Jul 17 | Aug 3 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $231 (-20%) | +$1,625 | +$1,692 | +$1,742 | +$1,755 |
| $246 (-15%) | +$1,412 | +$1,523 | +$1,663 | +$1,755 |
| $255 (-12%) โ target | +$1,198 | +$1,313 | +$1,493 | +$1,755 |
| $260 (-10%) | +$1,043 | +$1,145 | +$1,321 | +$1,755 |
| $275 (-5%) | +$572 | +$593 | +$633 | +$766 |
| $284 (-2%) | +$285 | +$249 | +$174 | -$102 |
| $289 (0%) โ spot | +$106 | +$38 | -$95 | -$681 |
| $295 (+2%) | -$57 | -$148 | -$312 | -$745 |
| $304 (+5%) | -$263 | -$370 | -$536 | -$745 |
| $318 (+10%) | -$505 | -$597 | -$699 | -$745 |
| $333 (+15%) | -$638 | -$696 | -$738 | -$745 |
| $347 (+20%) | -$703 | -$731 | -$744 | -$745 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.