Target Price Playground
AAPL
$328.64
๐ข
AAPL IV: 28.3% โ LOW
(-41.0% vs 30d avg of 47.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $370 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
60d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $330 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.9 ยท ฮ 0.5
SHORT CALL ยท $355 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.25 ยท ฮ 0.25
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $370 by Sep 18: the bull call spread returns +$1,635 (189.0%) on $865 risked, vs +$4,136 (12.6%) for 100 shares on $32,864. Options give 15.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (60 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $370. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $370 by Sep 18
+$1,635
+189.0% on $865 risked
Max Profit
+$1,635
If the stock โฅ $355 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$865
Net debit
Break-even
$338.65
+3.05% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
27%
IV-implied, 60d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
24.46 / -3.32 / 14.95
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Aug 9 | Aug 29 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $263 (-20%) | -$835 | -$858 | -$865 | -$865 |
| $279 (-15%) | -$763 | -$822 | -$861 | -$865 |
| $296 (-10%) | -$603 | -$705 | -$821 | -$865 |
| $312 (-5%) | -$329 | -$444 | -$634 | -$865 |
| $322 (-2%) | -$116 | -$210 | -$391 | -$865 |
| $329 (0%) โ spot | +$40 | -$28 | -$170 | -$865 |
| $335 (+2%) | +$203 | +$166 | +$86 | -$344 |
| $345 (+5%) | +$448 | +$464 | +$496 | +$642 |
| $362 (+10%) | +$827 | +$916 | +$1,089 | +$1,635 |
| $370 (+13%) โ target | +$994 | +$1,105 | +$1,300 | +$1,635 |
| $378 (+15%) | +$1,129 | +$1,248 | +$1,436 | +$1,635 |
| $394 (+20%) | +$1,340 | +$1,449 | +$1,577 | +$1,635 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.