Target Price Playground
AAPL
$289.36
๐ข
AAPL IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-42.4% vs 30d avg of 46.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $325 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
52d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $290 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.35 ยท ฮ 0.53
SHORT CALL ยท $315 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.45 ยท ฮ 0.22
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $325 by Aug 21: the bull call spread returns +$1,610 (180.9%) on $890 risked, vs +$3,564 (12.3%) for 100 shares on $28,936. Options give 14.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (52 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $325. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $325 by Aug 21
+$1,610
+180.9% on $890 risked
Max Profit
+$1,610
If the stock โฅ $315 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$890
Net debit
Break-even
$298.90
+3.3% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
23%
IV-implied, 52d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
30.7 / -4.37 / 11.83
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Jul 17 | Aug 3 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $231 (-20%) | -$875 | -$887 | -$890 | -$890 |
| $246 (-15%) | -$824 | -$866 | -$888 | -$890 |
| $260 (-10%) | -$689 | -$776 | -$862 | -$890 |
| $275 (-5%) | -$425 | -$538 | -$707 | -$890 |
| $284 (-2%) | -$205 | -$304 | -$480 | -$890 |
| $289 (0%) โ spot | -$39 | -$115 | -$261 | -$890 |
| $295 (+2%) | +$137 | +$92 | +$2 | -$375 |
| $304 (+5%) | +$405 | +$415 | +$433 | +$493 |
| $318 (+10%) | +$821 | +$907 | +$1,066 | +$1,610 |
| $325 (+12%) โ target | +$984 | +$1,089 | +$1,269 | +$1,610 |
| $333 (+15%) | +$1,144 | +$1,257 | +$1,427 | +$1,610 |
| $347 (+20%) | +$1,358 | +$1,456 | +$1,562 | +$1,610 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.