Target Price Playground
AAPL
$313.33
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.7% โ LOW
(-43.7% vs 30d avg of 49.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $350 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $315 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.3 ยท ฮ 0.52
SHORT CALL ยท $340 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.05 ยท ฮ 0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $350 by Oct 16: the bull call spread returns +$1,575 (170.3%) on $925 risked, vs +$3,667 (11.7%) for 100 shares on $31,333. Options give 14.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $350. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $350 by Oct 16
+$1,575
+170.3% on $925 risked
Max Profit
+$1,575
If the stock โฅ $340 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$925
Net debit
Break-even
$324.25
+3.49% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
34%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
26.58 / -2.7 / 14.82
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Sep 1 | Sep 23 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $251 (-20%) | -$885 | -$913 | -$925 | -$925 |
| $266 (-15%) | -$803 | -$869 | -$918 | -$925 |
| $282 (-10%) | -$636 | -$741 | -$866 | -$925 |
| $298 (-5%) | -$370 | -$481 | -$668 | -$925 |
| $307 (-2%) | -$168 | -$259 | -$432 | -$925 |
| $313 (0%) โ spot | -$22 | -$89 | -$226 | -$925 |
| $320 (+2%) | +$130 | +$92 | +$10 | -$465 |
| $329 (+5%) | +$359 | +$369 | +$388 | +$475 |
| $345 (+10%) | +$716 | +$797 | +$953 | +$1,575 |
| $350 (+12%) โ target | +$825 | +$922 | +$1,103 | +$1,575 |
| $360 (+15%) | +$1,011 | +$1,127 | +$1,317 | +$1,575 |
| $376 (+20%) | +$1,227 | +$1,341 | +$1,487 | +$1,575 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.