Market Pulse — Daily Market Risk Score

Last Updated: Jul 20, 2026 12:18 PM ET

Overview Components Breadth History Setups 🔒 Valuation 🔒 Options Income 🔒
Today's Read
Heavy hedging (P/C 1.83) while VIX sleeps at 17.99 — smart money is quietly buying protection against a sideways tape on low-conviction volume. No clear edge from fear alone — trade setups, not the headline.
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Current Market Risk Level

🟡 ELEVATED RISK
46 / 100
🟢 LOW (0-40) 🟡 ELEVATED (40-60) 🟠 HIGH (60-75) 🔴 EXTREME (75-100)

Last Updated: Jul 20, 2026 12:18 PM ET

Component Breakdown

Put Activity (P/C Ratio) 15/30 🔴
15
Score based on 0-30 DTE (matches VIX timeframe)
└─ 0-30 DTE: 1.83 - High fear - caution advised SCORING
└─ 0-7 DTE: 1.4 - Elevated fear
└─ 0-45 DTE: 1.89 - High fear - caution advised
└─ ALL: 1.55 - High fear - caution advised
What happened last time: P/C at or above 1.83 occurred on 108 days in the past 14 months — SPY was higher 30 days later 56% of the time (avg +1.0%), vs a 58% base rate (avg +1.2%) for all days. Forward returns at this level roughly matched the everyday base rate — the fear reading alone is not an edge.
VIX Stress 5/15 🟢
5
└─ VIX Level: 17.99 - Normal volatility
Key Insight: When P/C ratio is high but VIX is low, it indicates smart money positioning before the crowd realizes danger. This divergence is often an early warning signal.
Market Breadth (20-Day Trendlines) 7/15 🟡
7
└─ Net Breadth: -7.6% — Mildly Bearish
└─ ↑ 6,309 (46.2%) ↓ 7,338 (53.8%)
Key Insight: Mildly bearish breadth — distribution underway. Pulse score raised to flag elevated downside risk even if indices look stable.

Market Breadth Trend

SPY Price & Volume Context

Market Regime: Sideways

Interpretation: Choppy market with elevated hedging

  • SPY 5D Change: +0.41%
  • SPY 20D Change: +0.21%
  • 30D Drawdown: -1.14%
Volume Confirmation: LOW
  • Volume Ratio: 0.32x avg
  • Today's Volume: 16,632,469
  • 20D Avg Volume: 52,284,194
📊 Low volume = lack of conviction
✅ No Active Alerts

Market risk levels are within normal ranges. Continue monitoring for changes in put activity and VIX stress levels.

Live Trendline Breadth (Intraday)

Mildly Bearish
-7.8% Net Breadth
Uptrend: 6,289 (46.1%) Downtrend: 7,358 (53.9%)
46.1%
53.9%
13,647 stocks analyzed

Historical Risk Score (Last 90 Days)

Detailed Metrics

Timeframe P/C Ratio Put OI Call OI Signal
0-7 DTE 1.4 743,458 446,775 Elevated fear
0-30 DTE 1.83 1,535,326 966,066 High fear - caution advised (SCORING)
0-45 DTE 1.89 2,301,275 1,544,263 High fear - caution advised
ALL (incl. LEAPS) 1.55 6,217,625 4,697,539 High fear - caution advised

Note: 0-30 DTE is used for scoring because it matches the VIX's 30-day implied volatility timeframe. Different timeframes show different market positioning strategies (short-term vs long-term hedging).

Current VIX: 17.99 Normal volatility
Score: 5/15 points
Why This Matters: VIX measures 30-day implied volatility. When VIX is low but P/C ratio is high, it suggests smart money is buying protection before the market recognizes the risk. This divergence is often an early warning signal of impending volatility.

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