Market Pulse — Daily Market Risk Score

Last Updated: Aug 14, 2026 2:18 PM ET

Overview Components Breadth History Setups 🔒 Valuation 🔒 Rotation 🔒 Options Income 🔒
Today's Read
Moderate hedging (P/C 1.51), VIX 14.36 against an advancing tape on low-conviction volume. Green-light conditions — normal position sizing, watch for complacency if VIX keeps sliding.
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Current Market Risk Level

🟢 LOW RISK
⚠ Tech vol divergence active (VXN−VIX spread 6.9) — historically halves LOW-risk forward returns: SPY +1.6% vs +2.6% next 21d, SMH +5.8% vs +13.5%, win rates ~25pp lower. Still constructive, but temper expectations — especially in semis. Details
21 / 100
🟢 LOW (0-40) 🟡 ELEVATED (40-60) 🟠 HIGH (60-75) 🔴 EXTREME (75-100)

Backtested (May 2025–Aug 2026): LOW readings preceded the best 21-day SPY returns (73% positive); EXTREME readings historically marked capitulation — a contrarian zone, not an impending decline. Treat elevated readings as a stress snapshot, not a sell signal.

Last Updated: Aug 14, 2026 2:18 PM ET

Component Breakdown

Put Activity (P/C Ratio) 15/30 🔴
15
Score based on 0-30 DTE (matches VIX timeframe)
└─ 0-30 DTE: 1.51 - High fear - caution advised SCORING
└─ 0-7 DTE: 1.62 - High fear - caution advised
└─ 0-45 DTE: 1.75 - High fear - caution advised
└─ ALL: 1.74 - High fear - caution advised
What happened last time: P/C at or above 1.51 occurred on 173 days in the past 15 months — SPY was higher 30 days later 59% of the time (avg +1.2%), vs a 61% base rate (avg +1.3%) for all days. Forward returns at this level roughly matched the everyday base rate — the fear reading alone is not an edge.
VIX Stress 0/15 🟢
0
└─ VIX Level: 14.36 - Low volatility
Key Insight: When P/C ratio is high but VIX is low, it indicates smart money positioning before the crowd realizes danger. This divergence is often an early warning signal.
Sector Volatility as of 2026-08-16
VIX S&P 500 index 14.3 (-7.8% 5d)
VXN Nasdaq-100 index 21.2 (-11.4% 5d)
Semi IV SOXX 30d ATM computed 42.6
Semi IV SMH 30d ATM computed 38.0
Software IV IGV 30d ATM computed 31.8
VXN−VIX spread 6.9
Tech vol hot while VIX is calm — the weakest cohort for BOTH: QQQ and SMH each fall ~3-6pp below their own norm and drop to ~coin-flip odds. Hidden stress, not a dip-buy signal.
Spread QQQ 21d win% SMH 21d win%
< 2.8 +2.9% 77% +5.9% 80%
2.8 – 3.6 +3.3% 79% +7.1% 73%
3.6 – 4.9 +0.6% 50% +4.9% 70%
> 4.9 ◀ now −0.1% 45% +1.2% 50%
Avg forward 21-day return when entering at each spread level (Nov 2024 – Aug 2026). Compare each row against the same column — SMH's higher base reflects the semi bull run, not relative safety.
Annualized volatility points. IV rows are computed from options chains (30d ATM); index rows are official Cboe values. Spread read is backtested (Nov 2024–Aug 2026, 21-day forward returns). Informational only — not part of the risk score.
Market Breadth (20-Day Trendlines) 0/15 🟢
0
└─ Net Breadth: +26.6% — Strong Bullish
└─ ↑ 8,843 (63.3%) ↓ 5,135 (36.7%)
Key Insight: Strong bullish breadth — over 60% of stocks in uptrends. Broad participation reduces risk of sudden reversal. Pulse score lowered to reflect healthy market structure.

Market Breadth Trend

SPY Price & Volume Context

Market Regime: Rising

Interpretation: Wall of worry - fear during rally (CONTRARIAN BULLISH)

  • SPY 5D Change: +0.44%
  • SPY 20D Change: +4.73%
  • 30D Drawdown: -0.25%
Volume Confirmation: LOW
  • Volume Ratio: 0.36x avg
  • Today's Volume: 17,376,686
  • 20D Avg Volume: 48,329,369
⚠️ CAUTION: Rally on low volume = suspect advance
✅ No Active Alerts

Market risk levels are within normal ranges. Continue monitoring for changes in put activity and VIX stress levels.

Live Trendline Breadth (Intraday)

Strong Bullish
+26.8% Net Breadth
Uptrend: 8,864 (63.4%) Downtrend: 5,116 (36.6%)
63.4%
36.6%
13,980 stocks analyzed

Historical Risk Score (Last 90 Days)

Detailed Metrics

Timeframe P/C Ratio Put OI Call OI Signal
0-7 DTE 1.62 2,702,829 1,974,259 High fear - caution advised
0-30 DTE 1.51 3,478,866 3,027,938 High fear - caution advised (SCORING)
0-45 DTE 1.75 5,641,871 4,684,863 High fear - caution advised
ALL (incl. LEAPS) 1.74 11,030,132 9,376,454 High fear - caution advised

Note: 0-30 DTE is used for scoring because it matches the VIX's 30-day implied volatility timeframe. Different timeframes show different market positioning strategies (short-term vs long-term hedging).

Current VIX: 14.36 Low volatility
Score: 0/15 points
Why This Matters: VIX measures 30-day implied volatility. When VIX is low but P/C ratio is high, it suggests smart money is buying protection before the market recognizes the risk. This divergence is often an early warning signal of impending volatility.

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