Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $305 by Aug 21: the cash-secured put returns +$387 (1.5%) on $-387 credit (max loss $26,113), vs +$1,564 (5.4%) for 100 shares on $28,936. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (52 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $305. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Jul 17 | Aug 3 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $231 (-20%) | -$2,925 | -$2,905 | -$2,913 | -$2,964 |
| $246 (-15%) | -$1,750 | -$1,650 | -$1,547 | -$1,517 |
| $260 (-10%) | -$843 | -$682 | -$469 | -$71 |
| $275 (-5%) | -$237 | -$76 | +$128 | +$387 |
| $284 (-2%) | -$4 | +$132 | +$284 | +$387 |
| $289 (0%) โ spot | +$108 | +$223 | +$336 | +$387 |
| $295 (+2%) | +$191 | +$284 | +$363 | +$387 |
| $305 (+5%) โ target | +$285 | +$344 | +$382 | +$387 |
| $318 (+10%) | +$348 | +$375 | +$386 | +$387 |
| $333 (+15%) | +$375 | +$385 | +$387 | +$387 |
| $347 (+20%) | +$383 | +$387 | +$387 | +$387 |