Target Price Playground
AAPL
$289.36
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.0% โ LOW
(-42.1% vs 30d avg of 46.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $315 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
52d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $289.36 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $315 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.45 ยท ฮ 0.22
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $315 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$2,909 (10.2%) on $28,591 risked, vs +$2,564 (8.9%) for 100 shares on $28,936. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (52 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $315. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $315 by Aug 21
+$2,909
+10.2% on $28,591 risked
Max Profit
+$2,909
If the stock โฅ $315 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$28,591
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$285.91
-1.19% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
39%
IV-implied, 52d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
78.1 / 8.72 / -31.25
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Jul 17 | Aug 3 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $231 (-20%) | -$5,443 | -$5,442 | -$5,442 | -$5,442 |
| $246 (-15%) | -$4,005 | -$3,996 | -$3,995 | -$3,995 |
| $260 (-10%) | -$2,593 | -$2,561 | -$2,549 | -$2,549 |
| $275 (-5%) | -$1,253 | -$1,166 | -$1,111 | -$1,102 |
| $284 (-2%) | -$513 | -$379 | -$268 | -$234 |
| $289 (0%) โ spot | -$56 | +$112 | +$272 | +$345 |
| $295 (+2%) | +$366 | +$566 | +$780 | +$924 |
| $304 (+5%) | +$927 | +$1,166 | +$1,453 | +$1,792 |
| $315 (+9%) โ target | +$1,512 | +$1,777 | +$2,111 | +$2,909 |
| $318 (+10%) | +$1,655 | +$1,922 | +$2,256 | +$2,909 |
| $333 (+15%) | +$2,139 | +$2,381 | +$2,655 | +$2,909 |
| $347 (+20%) | +$2,427 | +$2,616 | +$2,797 | +$2,909 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.