Target Price Playground
AAPL
$289.36
๐ข
AAPL IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-42.6% vs 30d avg of 46.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $275 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
52d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $290 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.29 ยท ฮ -0.47
SHORT PUT ยท $275 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.76 ยท ฮ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $275 by Aug 21: the diagonal put spread returns +$842 (98.7%) on $853 risked, vs $-1,436 (-5.0%) for 100 shares on $28,936. Options give 19.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (52 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $275. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $275 by Aug 21
+$842
+98.7% on $853 risked
Max Profit
+$821
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$853
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$288.54
-0.28% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 52d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-18.38 / 1.63 / 17.31
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Jul 17 | Aug 3 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $231 (-20%) | +$542 | +$553 | +$553 | +$548 |
| $246 (-15%) | +$510 | +$549 | +$577 | +$559 |
| $260 (-10%) | +$412 | +$480 | +$570 | +$628 |
| $275 (-5%) โ target | +$228 | +$291 | +$398 | +$876 |
| $284 (-2%) | +$87 | +$129 | +$197 | +$311 |
| $289 (0%) โ spot | -$15 | +$7 | +$37 | +$4 |
| $295 (+2%) | -$118 | -$117 | -$127 | -$243 |
| $304 (+5%) | -$268 | -$295 | -$351 | -$510 |
| $318 (+10%) | -$485 | -$537 | -$620 | -$742 |
| $333 (+15%) | -$641 | -$694 | -$760 | -$824 |
| $347 (+20%) | -$741 | -$781 | -$820 | -$847 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.