Target Price Playground
AAPL
$289.36
๐ข
AAPL IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-42.6% vs 30d avg of 46.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $325 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
52d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $290 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.35 ยท ฮ 0.52
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $325 by Aug 21: the long call returns +$2,265 (183.4%) on $1,235 risked, vs +$3,564 (12.3%) for 100 shares on $28,936. Options give 14.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (52 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $325. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $325 by Aug 21
+$2,265
+183.4% on $1,235 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$1,235
Premium paid
Break-even
$302.35
+4.49% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
23%
IV-implied, 52d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
52.45 / -13.14 / 43.09
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Jul 17 | Aug 3 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $231 (-20%) | -$1,219 | -$1,232 | -$1,235 | -$1,235 |
| $246 (-15%) | -$1,160 | -$1,210 | -$1,233 | -$1,235 |
| $260 (-10%) | -$990 | -$1,109 | -$1,207 | -$1,235 |
| $275 (-5%) | -$619 | -$819 | -$1,044 | -$1,235 |
| $284 (-2%) | -$272 | -$505 | -$792 | -$1,235 |
| $289 (0%) โ spot | +$17 | -$227 | -$533 | -$1,235 |
| $295 (+2%) | +$349 | +$105 | -$199 | -$720 |
| $304 (+5%) | +$926 | +$696 | +$428 | +$148 |
| $318 (+10%) | +$2,060 | +$1,880 | +$1,705 | +$1,595 |
| $325 (+12%) โ target | +$2,641 | +$2,486 | +$2,349 | +$2,265 |
| $333 (+15%) | +$3,345 | +$3,217 | +$3,112 | +$3,041 |
| $347 (+20%) | +$4,719 | +$4,627 | +$4,553 | +$4,488 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.