Target Price Playground
AAPL
$289.36
๐ข
AAPL IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-42.6% vs 30d avg of 46.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $255 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
52d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $290 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.32 ยท ฮ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $255 by Aug 21: the long put returns +$2,368 (209.2%) on $1,132 risked, vs $-3,436 (-11.9%) for 100 shares on $28,936. Options give 17.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (52 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $255. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $255 by Aug 21
+$2,368
+209.2% on $1,132 risked
Max Profit
+$27,868
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,132
Premium paid
Break-even
$278.68
-3.69% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
25%
IV-implied, 52d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-48.23 / -10.05 / 43.07
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Jul 17 | Aug 3 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $231 (-20%) | +$4,550 | +$4,597 | +$4,655 | +$4,719 |
| $246 (-15%) | +$3,162 | +$3,173 | +$3,210 | +$3,272 |
| $255 (-12%) โ target | +$2,345 | +$2,316 | +$2,315 | +$2,368 |
| $260 (-10%) | +$1,886 | +$1,827 | +$1,790 | +$1,826 |
| $275 (-5%) | +$809 | +$670 | +$505 | +$379 |
| $284 (-2%) | +$289 | +$117 | -$110 | -$489 |
| $289 (0%) โ spot | -$2 | -$185 | -$430 | -$1,068 |
| $295 (+2%) | -$248 | -$432 | -$676 | -$1,132 |
| $304 (+5%) | -$540 | -$709 | -$916 | -$1,132 |
| $318 (+10%) | -$853 | -$972 | -$1,086 | -$1,132 |
| $333 (+15%) | -$1,013 | -$1,081 | -$1,125 | -$1,132 |
| $347 (+20%) | -$1,086 | -$1,118 | -$1,131 | -$1,132 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.