Target Price Playground
AAPL
$289.36
๐ข
AAPL IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-42.6% vs 30d avg of 46.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $320 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
52d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $289.36 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $275 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.76 ยท ฮ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $320 by Aug 21: the protective put returns +$2,488 (8.4%) on $29,512 risked, vs +$3,064 (10.6%) for 100 shares on $28,936. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (52 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $320. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $320 by Aug 21
+$2,488
+8.4% on $29,512 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,012
Put floors you at $275
Break-even
$295.12
+1.99% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
31%
IV-implied, 52d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
71.13 / -9.43 / 35.98
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Jul 17 | Aug 3 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $231 (-20%) | -$2,128 | -$2,111 | -$2,072 | -$2,012 |
| $246 (-15%) | -$1,972 | -$2,023 | -$2,050 | -$2,012 |
| $260 (-10%) | -$1,613 | -$1,744 | -$1,897 | -$2,012 |
| $275 (-5%) | -$974 | -$1,148 | -$1,382 | -$2,012 |
| $284 (-2%) | -$451 | -$621 | -$841 | -$1,155 |
| $289 (0%) โ spot | -$49 | -$206 | -$396 | -$576 |
| $295 (+2%) | +$390 | +$252 | +$100 | +$3 |
| $304 (+5%) | +$1,106 | +$1,001 | +$905 | +$871 |
| $320 (+11%) โ target | +$2,572 | +$2,520 | +$2,491 | +$2,488 |
| $333 (+15%) | +$3,798 | +$3,773 | +$3,764 | +$3,764 |
| $347 (+20%) | +$5,222 | +$5,213 | +$5,211 | +$5,211 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.