Target Price Playground
AAPL
$289.36
๐ข
AAPL IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-42.6% vs 30d avg of 46.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $335 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
52d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $290 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.35 ยท ฮ 0.52
LONG PUT ยท $290 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.32 ยท ฮ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $335 by Aug 21: the long straddle returns +$2,133 (90.1%) on $2,367 risked, vs +$4,564 (15.8%) for 100 shares on $28,936. Options give 5.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (52 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $335. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $335 by Aug 21
+$2,133
+90.1% on $2,367 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,367
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$266.33
-7.96% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
13%
IV-implied, 52d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
4.22 / -23.19 / 86.16
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Jul 17 | Aug 3 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $231 (-20%) | +$3,331 | +$3,365 | +$3,420 | +$3,484 |
| $246 (-15%) | +$2,001 | +$1,963 | +$1,976 | +$2,037 |
| $260 (-10%) | +$896 | +$717 | +$583 | +$591 |
| $275 (-5%) | +$190 | -$149 | -$539 | -$856 |
| $284 (-2%) | +$17 | -$388 | -$902 | -$1,724 |
| $289 (0%) โ spot | +$15 | -$412 | -$964 | -$2,303 |
| $295 (+2%) | +$101 | -$327 | -$875 | -$1,852 |
| $304 (+5%) | +$386 | -$13 | -$489 | -$984 |
| $318 (+10%) | +$1,207 | +$907 | +$620 | +$463 |
| $335 (+16%) โ target | +$2,525 | +$2,343 | +$2,207 | +$2,133 |
| $347 (+20%) | +$3,633 | +$3,509 | +$3,422 | +$3,356 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.