Target Price Playground
AAPL
$283.78
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.4% โ LOW
(-41.9% vs 30d avg of 47.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $270 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
55d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $285 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.91 ยท ฮ -0.49
SHORT PUT ยท $270 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.8 ยท ฮ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $270 by Aug 21: the diagonal put spread returns +$995 (140.0%) on $711 risked, vs $-1,378 (-4.9%) for 100 shares on $28,378. Options give 28.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (55 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $270. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $270 by Aug 21
+$995
+140.0% on $711 risked
Max Profit
+$967
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$711
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$286.93
+1.11% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 55d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-17.66 / 1.87 / 16.72
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Jul 15 | Aug 2 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $227 (-20%) | +$682 | +$696 | +$697 | +$692 |
| $241 (-15%) | +$646 | +$687 | +$718 | +$702 |
| $255 (-10%) | +$546 | +$614 | +$707 | +$768 |
| $270 (-5%) โ target | +$361 | +$424 | +$530 | +$1,013 |
| $278 (-2%) | +$230 | +$272 | +$343 | +$474 |
| $284 (0%) โ spot | +$132 | +$155 | +$189 | +$167 |
| $289 (+2%) | +$32 | +$36 | +$30 | -$82 |
| $298 (+5%) | -$113 | -$137 | -$190 | -$352 |
| $312 (+10%) | -$325 | -$377 | -$461 | -$592 |
| $326 (+15%) | -$483 | -$538 | -$607 | -$679 |
| $341 (+20%) | -$586 | -$629 | -$673 | -$704 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.