Target Price Playground
AAPL
$283.78
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.4% โ LOW
(-41.9% vs 30d avg of 47.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $250 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
55d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $285 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.25 ยท ฮ -0.5
SHORT PUT ยท $260 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.9 ยท ฮ -0.21
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $250 by Aug 21: the bear put spread returns +$1,665 (199.4%) on $835 risked, vs $-3,378 (-11.9%) for 100 shares on $28,378. Options give 16.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (55 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $250. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $250 by Aug 21
+$1,665
+199.4% on $835 risked
Max Profit
+$1,665
If the stock โค $260 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$835
Net debit
Break-even
$276.65
-2.51% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
27%
IV-implied, 55d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-28.61 / -1.3 / 8.33
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Jul 15 | Aug 2 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $227 (-20%) | +$1,523 | +$1,594 | +$1,650 | +$1,665 |
| $241 (-15%) | +$1,307 | +$1,420 | +$1,564 | +$1,665 |
| $250 (-12%) โ target | +$1,099 | +$1,213 | +$1,395 | +$1,665 |
| $255 (-10%) | +$946 | +$1,047 | +$1,223 | +$1,665 |
| $270 (-5%) | +$490 | +$514 | +$557 | +$706 |
| $278 (-2%) | +$213 | +$180 | +$112 | -$145 |
| $284 (0%) โ spot | +$39 | -$25 | -$152 | -$713 |
| $289 (+2%) | -$120 | -$208 | -$370 | -$835 |
| $298 (+5%) | -$324 | -$430 | -$600 | -$835 |
| $312 (+10%) | -$570 | -$666 | -$779 | -$835 |
| $326 (+15%) | -$711 | -$775 | -$825 | -$835 |
| $341 (+20%) | -$783 | -$817 | -$834 | -$835 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.