Target Price Playground
AAPL
$283.78
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.4% โ LOW
(-41.9% vs 30d avg of 47.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $250 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
55d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $285 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.25 ยท ฮ -0.5
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $250 by Aug 21: the long put returns +$2,275 (185.7%) on $1,225 risked, vs $-3,378 (-11.9%) for 100 shares on $28,378. Options give 15.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (55 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $250. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $250 by Aug 21
+$2,275
+185.7% on $1,225 risked
Max Profit
+$27,275
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,225
Premium paid
Break-even
$272.75
-3.89% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
27%
IV-implied, 55d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-50.01 / -9.71 / 43.88
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Jul 15 | Aug 2 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $227 (-20%) | +$4,400 | +$4,447 | +$4,506 | +$4,573 |
| $241 (-15%) | +$3,045 | +$3,053 | +$3,090 | +$3,154 |
| $250 (-12%) โ target | +$2,256 | +$2,224 | +$2,221 | +$2,275 |
| $255 (-10%) | +$1,801 | +$1,739 | +$1,699 | +$1,735 |
| $270 (-5%) | +$750 | +$609 | +$443 | +$316 |
| $278 (-2%) | +$239 | +$65 | -$164 | -$535 |
| $284 (0%) โ spot | -$49 | -$234 | -$483 | -$1,103 |
| $289 (+2%) | -$295 | -$482 | -$732 | -$1,225 |
| $298 (+5%) | -$589 | -$764 | -$982 | -$1,225 |
| $312 (+10%) | -$913 | -$1,041 | -$1,168 | -$1,225 |
| $326 (+15%) | -$1,085 | -$1,162 | -$1,215 | -$1,225 |
| $341 (+20%) | -$1,168 | -$1,206 | -$1,224 | -$1,225 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.