Target Price Playground
AAPL
$283.78
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.4% โ LOW
(-41.9% vs 30d avg of 47.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $310 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
55d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $283.78 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $270 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.8 ยท ฮ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $310 by Aug 21: the protective put returns +$1,942 (6.7%) on $29,058 risked, vs +$2,622 (9.2%) for 100 shares on $28,378. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (55 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $310. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $310 by Aug 21
+$1,942
+6.7% on $29,058 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,058
Put floors you at $270
Break-even
$290.58
+2.4% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
39%
IV-implied, 55d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
68.93 / -9.5 / 36.86
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Jul 15 | Aug 2 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $227 (-20%) | -$2,172 | -$2,158 | -$2,120 | -$2,058 |
| $241 (-15%) | -$2,009 | -$2,063 | -$2,095 | -$2,058 |
| $255 (-10%) | -$1,647 | -$1,780 | -$1,938 | -$2,058 |
| $270 (-5%) | -$1,019 | -$1,196 | -$1,433 | -$2,058 |
| $278 (-2%) | -$511 | -$685 | -$911 | -$1,248 |
| $284 (0%) โ spot | -$121 | -$283 | -$481 | -$680 |
| $289 (+2%) | +$305 | +$161 | -$1 | -$112 |
| $298 (+5%) | +$999 | +$886 | +$780 | +$739 |
| $310 (+9%) โ target | +$2,068 | +$1,998 | +$1,950 | +$1,942 |
| $326 (+15%) | +$3,619 | +$3,589 | +$3,578 | +$3,577 |
| $341 (+20%) | +$5,011 | +$4,999 | +$4,996 | +$4,996 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.