Target Price Playground
AAPL
$315.32
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.0% โ LOW
(-41.4% vs 30d avg of 46.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $275 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $315 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.63 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $290 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.3 ยท ฮ -0.22
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $275 by Sep 18: the bear put spread returns +$1,667 (200.1%) on $833 risked, vs $-4,032 (-12.8%) for 100 shares on $31,532. Options give 15.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $275. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $275 by Sep 18
+$1,667
+200.1% on $833 risked
Max Profit
+$1,667
If the stock โค $290 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$833
Net debit
Break-even
$306.67
-2.74% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
28%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-24.29 / -1.54 / 10.09
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $252 (-20%) | +$1,475 | +$1,562 | +$1,643 | +$1,667 |
| $268 (-15%) | +$1,243 | +$1,362 | +$1,535 | +$1,667 |
| $275 (-13%) โ target | +$1,101 | +$1,218 | +$1,415 | +$1,667 |
| $284 (-10%) | +$893 | +$989 | +$1,175 | +$1,667 |
| $300 (-5%) | +$473 | +$495 | +$536 | +$712 |
| $309 (-2%) | +$221 | +$191 | +$119 | -$234 |
| $315 (0%) โ spot | +$63 | +$2 | -$129 | -$833 |
| $322 (+2%) | -$84 | -$168 | -$338 | -$833 |
| $331 (+5%) | -$277 | -$381 | -$566 | -$833 |
| $347 (+10%) | -$518 | -$621 | -$758 | -$833 |
| $363 (+15%) | -$670 | -$746 | -$817 | -$833 |
| $378 (+20%) | -$755 | -$801 | -$830 | -$833 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.