Target Price Playground
AAPL
$315.32
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.0% โ LOW
(-41.4% vs 30d avg of 46.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $355 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $315 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.9 ยท ฮ 0.54
SHORT CALL ยท $340 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.2 ยท ฮ 0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $355 by Sep 18: the bull call spread returns +$1,530 (157.7%) on $970 risked, vs +$3,968 (12.6%) for 100 shares on $31,532. Options give 12.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $355. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $355 by Sep 18
+$1,530
+157.7% on $970 risked
Max Profit
+$1,530
If the stock โฅ $340 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$970
Net debit
Break-even
$324.70
+2.97% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
29%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
25.75 / -2.81 / 3.12
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $252 (-20%) | -$930 | -$958 | -$970 | -$970 |
| $268 (-15%) | -$846 | -$912 | -$963 | -$970 |
| $284 (-10%) | -$671 | -$776 | -$908 | -$970 |
| $300 (-5%) | -$389 | -$498 | -$692 | -$970 |
| $309 (-2%) | -$177 | -$262 | -$435 | -$970 |
| $315 (0%) โ spot | -$23 | -$83 | -$211 | -$938 |
| $322 (+2%) | +$135 | +$106 | +$41 | -$307 |
| $331 (+5%) | +$371 | +$392 | +$434 | +$639 |
| $347 (+10%) | +$733 | +$820 | +$994 | +$1,530 |
| $355 (+13%) โ target | +$893 | +$1,000 | +$1,195 | +$1,530 |
| $363 (+15%) | +$1,022 | +$1,137 | +$1,326 | +$1,530 |
| $378 (+20%) | +$1,227 | +$1,334 | +$1,466 | +$1,530 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.