Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $330 by Sep 18: the cash-secured put returns +$530 (1.9%) on $-530 credit (max loss $28,470), vs +$1,468 (4.7%) for 100 shares on $31,532. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $330. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $252 (-20%) | -$3,221 | -$3,184 | -$3,179 | -$3,244 |
| $268 (-15%) | -$1,989 | -$1,862 | -$1,718 | -$1,668 |
| $284 (-10%) | -$1,023 | -$829 | -$559 | -$91 |
| $300 (-5%) | -$345 | -$143 | +$133 | +$530 |
| $309 (-2%) | -$63 | +$118 | +$344 | +$530 |
| $315 (0%) โ spot | +$80 | +$241 | +$425 | +$530 |
| $322 (+2%) | +$193 | +$332 | +$473 | +$530 |
| $330 (+5%) โ target | +$306 | +$414 | +$507 | +$530 |
| $347 (+10%) | +$438 | +$495 | +$527 | +$530 |
| $363 (+15%) | +$493 | +$520 | +$530 | +$530 |
| $378 (+20%) | +$516 | +$527 | +$530 | +$530 |